Future History of Globalisation & Episode 1
Action from E1 -tell us where, who or what context, future history debates with greatest impact on humanity are happening - eg
1 2
FUTURE HISTORY DIALOGUES
If you can question people who know a context's history of investing in productive & demanding human relationships, its future's main opportunities and risks can be mapped out as function of how few or many people conflicts exist.
The valuation of economics of exponentials applies to the world of globalisation as illustrated below, to an industry sector's future, a corporation, a nation, a city, a network- anywhere that relations systems can be transparently mapped around unique gravitational purpose. Tell us at wcbn007@easynet.co.uk if there is a gravity that matters most to your future and we will try to show how to start mapping it so that it attracts preneurial debate. A surprising meaning of the networked world is that without true future history analysis being transparently debated by all people coordinates, strategies of compound growth do not actionably exist.Why? Because the gravitational harmonies of the system and its boundaries to other systems govern more than any silo of people including those at the top.
Concise Future History of 1975-2025 written 1984
Episode 1- Leading Transparency
Episode 2 Changing Bossiness
Episode 3 Changing How nations are governed
Episode 4 Changing Economics
Episode 5 Changing Education
Episode 6 Changing Evil or those who tempt it
Episode 1
The hard work in this future history of 1975-2025 was done by a computer expert and a biology scientist, whose systemic forecasts I then edited to fit with my economic prejudices.
The computer expert was my son, Chris Macrae, who started telecommuting in 1973 and currently does this, with societal market mapmakers worldwide, out of Paris. The scientist he recruited among his student alumni clubs (eg London-York-Leeds-Cambridge in the UK) proved by far the best writer of the three of us, and also wrote the most sparkling mini-biographies illustrating every chapter. He did not want to be named because as he explained at a book conference we sensibly held in the cheaper grandstand at Ascot: “As atheistic moral relativist, I’ve been publishing stuff about another future, so I don’t want to seem to be forecasting your Christian libertarian one at the same time. I suspect that in his future, also intended as a Hollywood sci-fi script, mad Christian economists like me will blow the world up.
However, I have spent my working life writing articles for The Economist and hosting lectures and debating circles in nearly 30 countries. From these viewpoints, I believe that provided the people with the greatest global or local power are transparently surrounded with information networks and openly courageous communications debates then the future can be much more rosy than the past 1.
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E4 Changing Economics
Action Networking Now around E4
Project30000 know waves of such foundation contexts: 1) as life depends on clean water;2) energy depends on we help nature work with the sun; 3 discuss with uis what you believe number 3 is and we'll try and link you to some like-gravitated people
People for Public Broadcasting 1 2 3 - Brand Chartering's 10th birthday parties 2006
aSIN microfinance, and helping map the global villages 1 2 people like you most love sustaining
Changing Economics
The introduction of the international Centrobank was the last great act of government before government grew much less important. It was not a conception of policy-making governments at all, but emerged from the first computerised town meeting of the world.
By 2005 the gap in income and expectations between the rich and poor nations was recognised to be man's most dangerous problem. Internet linked television channels in sixty-eight countries invited their viewers to participate in a computerised conference about it, in the form of a series of weekly programmes. Recommendations tapped in by viewers were tried out on a computer model of the world economy. If recommendations were shown by the model to be likely to make the world economic situation worse, they were to be discarded. If recommendations were reported by the model to make the economic situation in poor countries better, they were retained for 'ongoing computer analysis' in the next programme.
In 2024 it is easy to see this as a forerunner of the TC conferences which play so large a part in our lives today, both as pastime and principal innovative device in business. But the truth of this 2005 breakthrough tends to irk the highbrow. It succeeded because it was initially a rather downmarket network television programme. About 400 million people watched the first programme, and 3 million individuals or groups tapped in suggestions. Around 99 per cent of these were rejected by the computer as likely to increase the unhappiness of mankind. It became known that the rejects included suggestions submitted by the World Council of Churches and by many other pressure groups. This still left 31,000 suggestions that were accepted by the computer as worthy of ongoing analysis. As these 31000 community dialogues were honed, and details were added to the most interesting- with cross-linking and the co-mentoring practices of 12th grade email understood by people and those who design social software (eg 1 2) an exciting consensus began to emerge. Later programmes were watched by nearly a billion people as it became recognised that something important was being born.
These audiences were swollen by successful telegimmicks. The presenter of the first part of the first programme was a roly-poly professor who was that year's Nobel laureate in economics, and who proved a natural television personality. He explained that economists now agreed that aid programmes could sometimes help poor countries, but sometimes most definitely made their circumstances worse. When Mexico was inflating at over 80 per cent a year in the early 1980s , the inflow to it of huge loanable funds made its inflation even faster and its crash more certain. The professor set Mexico's 1979-1981 economy on the model, pumped in the loaned funds and showed how all the indicators ( higher inflation, lower real gross domestic product and so on) then flashed red, signaling an economy getting worse, rather than green, signaling an economy getting better. ..The professor then put the model back to mirror the contemporary world of 2005, and played into it various nostrums that had been recommended by politicians of left, right and centre, but mostly left. The dials generally flashed red. Then the professor provided another set of recommendations , and asked viewers who wished to play to tap in their own guesses on the consequent movement of key economics variables in the model. Those who got their guesses right to within a set error were told they had qualified for a second round of a knock-out economic guesstimators' world championship. Knockout competitions of this sort continued for viewers throughout the series of programmes.
In the second part of that first programme, the presenters dared to introduce political decisions into the game. They said that government-to-government aid programmes had been particularly popular among politicians during the age of over-government, but there was growing agreement that government-to-government aid was the worst method of hand-out. The excessive role played by governments in poor countries was one of the barriers to their economic advance, and a main destroyer of their people's freedom. Could anyone have thought it would be wise to give aid to President Mbogo?
The first questions to be asked in the next few programmes, said the compilers, were 1) which countries should qualify for aid? ; and having decided that, 2) up to what limits and conditions? ; and 3) through what mechanisms? They promised that later programmes after the first half-dozen would examine how any scheme could be used to diminish the power of governments and increase the power of free markets and free people.
Open Copyright Asserted by Macrae.nets for all co-edited weblogs, co-hosted open spaces and cafes of collaboration knowledge city & country. Excerpted from Chapter 6 of The 2024 Report first published in the UK 1984. Republished in American and French as The 2025 Report in 1985, and in German as The 2026 Report in 1986; soon used to provide the Swedish Charter for Online with The New Vikings. Further inquiries welcomed by communities with urgent needs through mailto:wcbn007@easynet.co.uk?subject=via
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Make your foundations transparent
The more you seek to plant change globally or locally, the more everyone must participate in and trust what roots you stick with
We'll stick with these to 2024
Invest more and more in people before machines- if you believe in this then you will have to introduce a second audit because global accounting is the most conflicted maths possible for investing in people (clue look at what current/historic accounting rules permit the boardroom to book in as an investment -
for uptodate stories see intangibles-valuation and the great mathematical mistake that ruling the world, the EU's very conflicted Knowledge management, and what brand experts who love Canadian views of global branding have been plotting for 15 years now)
We believe in human rights to clean water (without which our bodies stop) and the sun's energy. So we will stick to algae as the fuel to 2025 - here's our 1984 extract on that (updated stories on humanity's struggle for clean energies are at
omniworldview,
solaroof; algaeworld,
aSIN,
sustainability billionnaires,
"green is the next red, white & blue", and
future of london) :
End of chapter 16:
Sunlight is the fuel which sustains life on earth. The process by which plants extract energy from sunlight, using that energy to build up complex compounds from simper ones and thereby storing the energy which animals, including humans, use to grow and move and see and think is the life-process itself. We (human beings) have always exploited that life-process, but in the past we have only been able to do so by using living plants as our agents. We learned to cultivate them, develop them by selective breeding, and since the 1980s to meddle with their genes, but we have not yet learned to substitute something of our own making for the living plant. We have not found or made a more efficient substitute for chlorophyll itself outside the naturally-occurring factory which is the living cell.
Until we design our own systems which can deploy the energy of sunlight as efficiently as humble algae does, we humans have no real biotechnology of our own. We have many kinds of solar cells which can extract energy from the sunlight and store is as electricity or heat, but such devices are very crude indeed beside the technical sophistication and versatility of living plants.
We are making a determined effort to capture and use a greater fraction of the solar energy which falls upon the face of the earth every day. We are trying to make plants flourish in paces where at present they can only eke out the most precarious of existence. The ideal situation, however, would be one in which we did not need to work so hard to adapt existing plants to more hostile conditions. If we had our own artificial systems of photosynthesis we might exploit the desert sun ourselves, without using other organisms as intermediaries. Our ultimate ambition must be to make artificial photosynthetic systems more efficient than those which have evolved alongside side us throughout the history of life on earth. Then and only then will we be able to claim that we are technologically self-sufficient. In 2024, this looks as if it might be one of our children's tasks.
Given this picture the 64 trillion dollar energy question and even more than that if we value sustainability of life is what can we best compound around the sun's energy exponentials in 2006. Next major public meeting on this in London looks like
March2006- please do tell us at
wcbn007@easynet.co.uk if you have other open meetings elsewhere to linkin on this agenda.
INTRODUCING BIOTECHNOLOGY
rest of chapter 16 - to be lasered in
We believe in networking every community up so that boundary transparencies do not externalise risk to whichever society is least ignorant of a global sector's expertise. So we'll go with a peoples economics which sustains healthily gravitated
exponentials connecting 2 million global villages. This is how we wrote that in 1984:
When we look at the most stunning development stories from the second half of the 20th Century – eg Taiwan – we see that the main incentive for entrepreneurs in such countries was to produce for fairly rich consumers , abroad or at home. If the 80 or so countries who most need development support in the early 21st Century all started exporting cheap-labour umbrellas like Taiwan in the 1950s, a glut of umbrellas would rather soon appear. It would be better if some of the 21st C entrepreneurs could be encouraged to provide more of the things desperately needed by the poorest three quarters of people.
An early clue emerged from Sweden in the 1980s where remote areas in the North of the country started experimenting with how core types of public service could be provided competitively-but-caringly by private entrepreneurs on performance contracts. Through the 1990s various Swedish voluntary organisations started to use this sort of system as they “adopted” certain Third World Villages.
Trailblazing projects associated withy these experiments mean that commercialism was dashing in where only saints had previously trod. Indeed, many of the saints both participated and learnt from these projects and their open replication across countries where communities faced contextually matching challenges to sustainability. This way ahead helped to realise E F Schumacher’s 2 million global villages. The author of Small is Beautiful published back in 1973 had outlined that the best way to bring help to the billion poorest people in the world was to create 2 million villages functioning smoothly with appropriate, hardy, labour-intensive technology
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2005 update on NATURE & HUMAMITY in light of Queen Elizabeth 2 semi-decade broadcast - Is Globaliszation turning Humanity on Itself?
The future of the world - and the human race - if there is to be one after century 21 - depends on governing global sectors : collaboratively, transparently and sustainably (map the future's compound exponentials simply enough for all the world to hold communal debates to our open hearts contents)
The first test case of collaborating in humanity will be water worldwide as a human right. Because cleanwater is the number 1 ingredient of life as well as health, and because water waves are coulpled with other environmental waves of nature's evolutionary power, which at a global level of species promtion and extinction will always be more determinant than what beings race to do.
For a year between 2002 and 2003 the European Union, through its KM portal knowledgeboard.com encouraged a network of over 100 knowledge angles to open space. They did this paying their own way to dialogues in London, Berlin and Luxembourg. Though knowedleg economics were integrated into tese debates it was also agreed that a thriving community of not for profit cases and explorations into ways to narrow global divides was the way to ensure that knowledgeboard sustained the most open of professional dialogues. Over a thousand of man days were volunteered by this the knowledge angels network who were encouraged to tender for minimal funds needed so that thousands of knowledge angels could host meetings all round Europe in small cafes as well as larger open spaces. Then their proposal was not only turned down by Brussels but the area in the KB portal where they had been encouraged to co-edit news was prevented from starting new discussion threads.
So before knowledge angels (a name the EU coined for transparent and meta-professional networking in 2002) were destroyed by apparently frightened bureaucrats (or self-centred "piecemeal expert" academics lobbying) the European Union from 2003 on, we started some far reaching debates on sustaining water and life. We have transferred extracts of these here for posterity or as long as google's blogger permits us to propagate this do no evil wave.
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Changing Economics Part 2
Extract from 1984 book on why connect 2 million global villages to sustain a networking globe & humanity -transparently distributing woprld trade beyond (national) boundaries and to sustain every local culture's integration with globalizationThe Centrobank which emerged for the hundred of millions who participated in the reality tv games and internet suggestions on how to end extrem poverty wass open to countries who agreed such principles as: transparent markets not politicians should set prices; human rights cases should be reffered to an international supreme court)An early and amibitious paradigm used by Centrobank was the granting of performamce contracts for creating EF Schumacher's 2 million villages. Perfomrnace contracts were put out whereby Japanese and other firms drew money from Centrobank if they transformed life in particular villages in coubntriues like Bangladesh by introducing fuller employment with introduction of appropriate labour intensive technology. Hordes of local entrepreneurs drew subcontractors fees if they put labour intensive export industries into these villages. From sustainable developments like these, doctors graduating from eg Indian medical schools soon found it far more profitable to earn Centrobank money competing for contracts in backward areas of their own country than by flocking to medical practices in the West. See also Twin Village Connectory, as one of Omidyar's exemplary revolutions in motion
Eg. of 2006 conversation among those working on community-up maps & linking 2 million global villagesWow lots of great stuff in this thread - can I permit myself 2 posts one on Theresa specific ideas I am rehearsing with friends, and one on other exciting groundings mentioned by people. I'll assume you know that Theresa's origin comes from at least 3 countries: Brazil, USA, UK and her dad is an economist in Washington DC
I have 2 specific tests that seem to be a way of
catalysing community-up connections
valuetrue.com mapmakers are using London as a visualisation space to connect concerned citizens around
5 villages all of which 21st Century's humanity need to multiply
exponentially up (Thomas Friedman's word uptilt) in sustaining 6 billion beings instead of powering over them. One of these needs to be a village -safe and crosscultural enough -for women and families to raise the greatest conflict resolving goals of our times 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006
in London, urgent peace activists as well may best call this
http://searchtheresa.blogspot.com (also links through to India as the most collaborative large nation where sensible compatriots led by an extraordinary current Prime Minister (who has a Cambridge doctorate in the economics of not compounding underclasses earned in the Fifties about 4 years after my dad) link primarily through wisdom of Gandhi's constitutional and St Theresa's practical wisdom
Back in today's London: there are also powerful women cheerleaders, such as Queen Elizabeth 2 when she makes her end of year conversation with all friends of the commonwealth : Is Humanity turning on itself ? Call this open inquisition village of power
http://ecosaintjames.blogspot.comMix this with the one unique asset -gift to the world - that the people of Britain own - number 1 public media broadcaster which through my lifetime the people have invested in 50 billion dollars, and London now has some unique collaboration plays for the rest of the world
http://clubofcity.blogspot.comSo question 1 is ok to continue with the namesake blog? Question 2:
I have it in my mind to go through my inbox to pick out every person who has told me they love 2 countries from oppopsite hemispeheres because their ubrininging or origin was from which, filtered by those who tell me one of their missions in life is to find a project that helps with the poor country's communal development. The mail I intend to send to these people is let's document one deep community project from each S or East hemisphere country when found at
www.catcomm.org Is this OK?
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